I think Blu-ray will be here for a while mainly because streaming doesn't come close to the quality currently. Also my concern is say that if we switch to HD streaming what happens when the ISPs decide to cap or tier bandwidth. Tiering is already happening. I know that I'm fairly irritated when my connection goes down or slowed. At least with a physical disc no matter what happens with my net connection I can still watch my video when I pop it into the player.

Another factor is simplicity currently it's still easier to buy a player, plug it into my tv, pick up a movie from my local retailer or renter (netflix) pop the movie in and watch. Compared to a monthly broadband subscription, having a media center or steaming box, connecting it all to the net (and keeping it working) then you get to watch your video (in lower def currently) and hoping that some movie studio doesn't pull the license the next time you want to watch your favorite movie. I like the idea that the movie in my library is always available.

Don't get me started on is the setup girlfriend friendly. Ha!

Rant over...overall I think the Blu-ray won't have the same lifespan as VHS but I think there will be a need for a physical media for a while until the details or worked out with streaming.

mdave I agree with you re: the availability to re-watch a movie over and over.

As long as that is a factor, people like me will be inclined to purchase DVDs of their favorite movies, instead of "renting" them via iTunes or OnDemand, etc.

Also, do we know how long a "file" lasts versus a DVD? I am not well-versed in this area - I know that hard drives degrade over time or get too cluttered.

There's also the home movie factor, which I think is what kept VHS around as long as it has been.

Bluray

depends on the price drop and the cost difference betweek dvd's and b-ray.